(North Cowichan, BC) – North Cowichan has written to provincial ministries outlining concerns with provincial housing targets under Bill 44 and to expedite water licence increases for two aquifers. Increased growth, and development demands, provincial housing targets, and the recent closure of the Crofton pulp mill have combined to create significant constraints and impacts on North Cowichan’s limited water and sewer servicing capacity, and water licensing limits.
North Cowichan remains a desirable place to live and for developers to build, as underscored by a considerable increase in development applications.
Council confirmed in August 2025 that the official community plan and zoning bylaw ensure provincial housing targets can be met. These documents allow for land use capacity for 7,083 new housing units over 20 years, meeting the target in the 2024 interim housing needs report. However, significant barriers have been identified that limit North Cowichan’s ability to respond to the province’s housing targets.
On February 18, 2026, Council received a follow up report on the municipality’s water and sewer servicing constraints. The report highlights a new concern regarding water servicing to Crofton following last December’s announcement of the permanent closure of the Domtar pulp mill. The mill currently supplies much of the residential water to the Crofton townsite. While water connections can be made through the South End water supply system, this would be at the expense of available water licence connections for future growth in the South End, reducing the available water capacity for new development from five years to one year. Domtar has indicated they would continue their provision of residential water until the end of 2026.
A Servicing Allocation Policy was also brought forward at the February 18 Council meeting. This policy would permit provisional, time-limited water and sewer capacity allocations to subdivision applications.
“North Cowichan is supportive of the province’s goals to increase housing supply,” said Mayor Rob Douglas. “However, our significant infrastructure and water licensing challenges stand in the way without provincial and federal support. We are calling on the Province to recognize these barriers and expedite solutions that would support new homes in our community.”
Council is now asking the province to address three major issues.
1. Population projections do not match the provincial housing target
BC Stats’ 2025 growth projections for North Cowichan are far below historical growth rates. This is not reflected in the provincial housing target order, the interim housing needs report, and what is expected based on North Cowichan’s population modelling and the total number of applications in the queue. Modeling shows an approximate 21,000-population difference over 20 years between BC Stats projections and full Bill 44 build out. The outdated provincial growth assumptions could mean the housing targets may be higher than what is needed.
2. Local water and sewer systems do not have capacity for further growth
New modelling completed in 2025 shows that North Cowichan does not have enough capacity within its existing water and sanitary systems to support further growth or the density envisioned under Bill 44.
- Existing water distribution systems were designed for lower density and lower fire flow demand.
- North Cowichan has approximately 10,500 units in land development applications. This is only slightly less than all of the existing units currently connected to our water and sanitary systems and represents significant growth potential if servicing capacity can be increased.
- There are currently 4,200 new units that have been allocated capacity.
- There are a further 6,300 additional units in the queue that cannot be serviced without major upgrades to water and sewer systems.
- Sanitary servicing depends on shared treatment plant upgrades now estimated at close to $100 million.
- Additional upgrades to water and sewer systems is estimated at $150 million.
These costs are far beyond what North Cowichan, developers, or existing taxpayers can fund without large contributions from senior governments.
3. Water licence limits restrict future development
North Cowichan relies on provincially licenced aquifers for the Chemainus and South End/Crofton systems. Both licences have limited remaining capacity for growth beyond what has already been allocated: Chemainus has two to four years of capacity remaining and the South End/Crofton have one to two years of capacity remaining.
Further impacting servicing and capacity is the December 2025 closure of the Crofton mill, as the mill supplies most of Crofton’s residential water. Long term water servicing plans for Crofton past the end of 2026 are still to be determined. Crofton can be fully serviced by the South End system via the Cowichan aquifer licence, however without an increase in the licence limit, North Cowichan will have to refuse building permits even when zoning supports development.
The long-term use of the Chemainus aquifer is also in jeopardy, as the province has not provided North Cowichan with a permanent year-round licence for the aquifer. A two-year reprieve for year-round pumping was granted in 2024, which has temporarily halted the need to access surface water from an alternate surface water supply during summer months. This surface water source is not sufficiently treated and therefore requires a boil-water advisory for all of Chemainus.
North Cowichan is requesting support from the province in five areas:
- Explain the reason for lower BC Stats population forecasts.
- Update the housing needs report methodology to reflect new population and immigration trends if the province believes that North Cowichan’s population projects are too high.
- Expedite work currently underway with the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship to increase North Cowichan’s water licence limits for the Cowichan and Chemainus aquifers, and provide a permanent year-round licence for the Chemainus source.
- Explore provincial infrastructure funding to support growth in core areas.
- Advocate for federal infrastructure funding for North Cowichan.
North Cowichan spans 195 square kilometres with 40 kilometres of oceanfront along the east side of Vancouver Island. In 2021 the population was 31,990. The municipality is a “community of communities” with distinct but spread out towns and neighbourhoods. North Cowichan owns and maintains three water systems and four sewage treatment systems.